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HorseRacing

The 2025 Kentucky Derby: Prospects and Betting Options

2024-11-26

Now that horse racing's unofficial "second season" has concluded with the 41st Breeders' Cup World Championships, it's time for the "first season" to flourish. The 2025 Triple Crown races over winter and early spring are on the horizon, starting with the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. Several qualifying points races have already taken place on Churchill Downs' official Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule, and new talents have emerged. Forecasting the field and making wagers is a highlight of Derby season. There are two ways to bet on the 151st Derby - fixed odds bets at Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas (but only in Nevada) and parimutuel pools at Churchill Downs. This season, fixed odds bets are offered by Caesars, but only in Nevada. For the committed horseplayer, bets can be made during visits or by surrogates and cashed in person or by mail. Churchill Downs has also started its series of parimutuel pools. Let's explore the contenders and betting options in detail.

Caesars Sportsbook and Fixed Odds Bets

Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas offers fixed odds bets on Derby prospects, but they are only available in Nevada. As of now, other platforms like FanDuel and DraftKings do not offer fixed-odds bets on the Kentucky Derby in the Bluegrass state. For example, the Caesars Sportsbook Kentucky Derby Leaderboard as of Nov. 24 shows Citizen Bull at 8-1, Rated by Merit at 14-1, East Avenue at 15-1, Chancer McPatrick at 18-1, and Gaming at 18-1. In Churchill Downs' second Kentucky Derby Pool, the individual favorites are Chancer McPatrick and East Avenue at 10-1, Citizen Bull at 20-1, Jonathan's Way at 20-1, and Sovereignty at 20-1. All other colts and geldings are listed at 4-5.

Baffert's Contenders

The "Baffert Effect" is back. In 2021, Bob Baffert briefly became the all-time winningest trainer in the Kentucky Derby with Medina Spirit. But the victory was short-lived as Medina Spirit was disqualified for a medication overage. Now, Baffert is back with a barn full of high-quality prospects. Citizen Bull won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at 15.90-1 and is a huge underlay at 8-1 odds on Caesars' book and 20-1 in Churchill's second parimutuel pool. Gaming and Getaway Car, who finished second and fourth behind Citizen Bull in the Juvenile, are pegged at 18-1 by Caesars and 25-1 and 50-1 in Churchill's pool, respectively. Emerald Bay, a son of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist and out of a 2017 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes winner, is getting attention despite a disappointing fourth place in the American Pharoah Stakes. Baffert's 1-2 finishers in a 6 ½-furlong maiden special weight race at Del Mar, Romanesque and Rodriguez, also deserve mention. Romanesque is in Churchill's second Derby pool at 40-1 odds, while Rodriguez might have more potential. Another Baffert runner, Barnes, is set to debut at Churchill Downs this week and is the 6-5 morning-line favorite.

Churchill Downs' Parimutuel Pools

Churchill Downs has started its series of parimutuel pools. The first pool was held from Oct. 30-Nov. 1, and the second pool kicks off on Nov. 28 and ends on Dec. 1, spanning the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. One qualifying points race for Derby 151, the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, will be held while the pool is open. In the second pool, there are various contenders with different odds. For example, Chancer McPatrick and East Avenue are favorites at 10-1, while Citizen Bull is at 20-1.

Other Contenders

There are many other intriguing contenders. Michael McCarthy trains Bullard at 22-1 by Caesars and 30-1 by Churchill, and Journalism at 45-1 by Caesars and 99-1 by Churchill. Journalism won a one-mile Del Mar maiden by 2 ½ lengths on Nov. 17. Bullard is 2-for-2 and showed a nice turn of foot. There are also value plays like Patch Adams offered at 100-1 by Caesars and 50-1 by Churchill. He set a pressured pace in his debut but tired. Sandman, a son of Tapit, is offered at 40-1 by Caesars and 90-1 by Churchill. He won his second start and showed improvement in subsequent races. Finally, Sea Vista, who finished second in both his career starts, got attention with his recent return at Churchill Downs. He is by 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and out of a multiple graded stakes-winning miler.These are the various contenders and betting options for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Each colt has its own potential and story, and the betting market is full of excitement and uncertainty. Horse racing enthusiasts and bettors alike will be closely watching these prospects in the coming months.