Baseball
As Juan Soto Signs $765M Deal, Ted Williams' Legacy Looms
2024-12-11
DALLAS — This week, perhaps you've found yourself pondering a rather intriguing question: What would it take for a baseball team to offer me a staggering $700 million? Well, let me tell you, it's not as far-fetched as it may seem.

Unraveling the Ted Williams-Juan Soto Connection

On-base IQ at a Young Age

In the history of baseball, only two hitters have achieved a walk rate above 18 percent by the age of 25 with at least 2,500 plate appearances. Ted Williams stands at 18.9 percent, and Juan Soto isn't far behind at 18.8 percent. (Source: Baseball Reference)When looking at the full array of on-base skills using the OBP+ metric from Baseball Reference, which adjusts on-base percentage to the context of a player's hitting environment, Williams and Soto shine. Williams has an OBP+ of 137, while Soto follows closely with 131. In other words, these are the only two young hitters whose on-base skills were at least 30 percent better than the league average. (Next on the list: Ty Cobb and Shoeless Joe Jackson, tied at 129.)Before he turned 26, Williams led his league in walks twice and on-base percentage three times, despite missing two seasons due to military service. Since then, only one left-handed hitter has achieved the same feat by age 25. Guess who? Juan Soto would be a great guess.

The Hidden Part of the Game

Davey Martinez, the first manager of Juan Soto's big-league career for five remarkable seasons in Washington, emphasizes Soto's unique understanding of the hidden part of the game. "This guy, for as young as he is — and he's still young — he understands the hidden part of the game better than anybody I know. He really does," Martinez said.By this, Martinez means that Soto has a plan for every pitch, not just every at-bat. It's an instinctual thing that pitchers, catchers, and opposing managers can feel. Rockies manager Bud Black also attests to this, describing Soto's at-bats in ways that are distinct from others. "When you use the words, plate discipline, that encompasses a lot of things. But for me, it's how he conducts the at-bat, where it's patience, but yet you sense that he's ready to hit. It's sort of an instinctual thing," Black said.

The Power Play

John Schneider, the manager of the Blue Jays who pursued Soto vigorously, highlights his unique blend of plate discipline and power. "He's a unique blend of plate discipline and power. I mean, you do not like facing it when you're an opposing team," Schneider said.When looking at walk percentage and home run percentage through age 25, Williams and Soto are in a league of their own. Williams had a 18.9% walk percentage and a 4.9% home run percentage, totaling 23.8%. Juan Soto follows closely with 18.8% walk percentage and 4.9% home run percentage, adding up to 23.7%. (Source: Baseball Reference; minimum 2,500 plate appearances)

The Flair

It's no secret that Ted Williams had an attitude both on and off the field. Juan Soto, however, takes it a step further with his signature "The Shuffle." His ability to use this as a way to keep engaged and get back in the box is truly remarkable.In a 2019 game at Citi Field, Marcus Stroman struck out Soto in the first inning and imitated The Shuffle. But in the very next at-bat, Soto hit a home run and gave Stroman a look that said, "Don't do that again." This showcases Soto's unique flair and confidence.Former Phillies manager Charlie Manuel also noted Soto's flamboyance. "He's kind of a flamboyant player. He's very interesting. He calls attention to you with his talent. … At the same time, he's cocky. But to me, it comes in a good way. You know, Ted Williams was very cocky, too," Manuel said.

Where Does Juan Soto Go from Here?

Since Soto is now under contract until 2040, it's a valid question to ask: Do hitters with his skill set tend to age well? History shows that plate discipline is a skill that tends to age well. Ted Williams is the ultimate example.Even though he left baseball twice to serve in the war, Williams returned at ages 27 and 34 and was nearly the same hitter he was before. Looking at his walk and home run rates through the years, it lays out a potential blueprint for what Soto might become.If Soto ages with similar rates, by 2040, he could be on track to reach around 600 career homers and 2,300 career walks. Just one player in history has reached these two plateaus — Barry Bonds.So, what does the future hold for Juan Soto? Only time will tell, but with his talent and unique approach, the possibilities are endless.
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