Uncover the Winning Horses at Churchill Downs

Race 2

No. 4 Notah, with a 3-1 odds, is set to lure Luis Saez with a significant class drop. The addition of blinkers could be the key to him rediscovering his summer form and going gate to wire. No. 1 Went West, also at 3-1, aced a similar field here in its last appearance and is a major contender. No. 2 President Z, with 5-1 odds, finished behind Went West after a long layoff last time. With Florent Geroux on board, it has the potential to improve.

If I had a $100 budget, I'd bet $15 exacta 4/1, $6 exacta 4/2, and $4 exacta 1/4.

Race 3

No. 1 Coalmoon, the morning-line favorite at 2-1, is likely to be tough if it can replicate its dirt debut performance. No. 6 Baby Max, at 12-1, had a challenging trip from off the pace in its first race but might benefit from the added ground. No. 3 South Bend Tom, at 3-1, split the field in its debut and has Tyler Gaffalione aboard for Al Stall.

My betting strategy for this race would be to place a $15 exacta 1/6 bet.

Race 6

No. 2 Windy Walk, the morning-line favorite at 2-1, has won four out of six races. One of its losses came in a stakes race at Saratoga, showing its competitiveness. This is a slightly tougher race, but the speed figures suggest it belongs. No. 6 Low Country Magic, at 4-1, finished strongly in a similar race at Keeneland and should lead the pack. No. 5 Crazy Cami, at 6-1, was three lengths behind in that Keeneland race but is the best of the rest.

I'd bet $20 exacta 2/6 for this race.

Race 7

No. 7 Briterdayzahead, the morning-line favorite at 5-2, has won three out of four races and is making its first claim with Steve Asmussen. Note the weight break as Erik Asmussen takes the reins. No. 1 Summer Splash, at 7-2, is likely to be the target for the top choice early on. It won easily at Ellis in its only 2024 start. No. 2 Top Gun Tommy, at 4-1, was a winner at this level earlier in the year at Santa Anita and has Samuel Camacho aboard for David Jacobson.

I'd bet $10 exacta 7/1,2 for this race.

Race 9

No. 6 Ember, at 7-2, carried its Canterbury form to Keeneland successfully and nearly beat a similar field here. Luis Saez has chosen to ride it after the Eddie Kenneally claim. No. 10 Category Ten, at 8-1, has solid speed figures and is shipping in from the Midwest. Don't dismiss it even from this post. No. 4 Business Model, the morning-line favorite at 5-2, was a respectable fourth here earlier this month despite having little pace to chase.

I'd bet $10 exacta 6/4,10 for this race.