In a thrilling week for English football, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have significantly bolstered their chances of securing spots in the Europa League final. With resounding victories in the first legs of their respective semi-finals, both teams are now well-positioned to clinch a place in the prestigious tournament's finale. A potential all-English showdown would mark only the sixth such occasion in major European competitions, with half of these featuring Tottenham. This scenario also raises the possibility of six English clubs participating in next season’s Champions League.
On Thursday evening, Manchester United delivered an impressive 3-0 away victory against Athletic Bilbao, who coincidentally will host the final on May 21st. This result has statisticians at Opta predicting a 97% likelihood of United advancing to the final. Meanwhile, Tottenham triumphed over Bodo/Glimt with a decisive 3-1 win at their London stadium, earning them an 88% probability of joining United in the ultimate match.
The stakes are high as winning the Europa League guarantees entry into the subsequent season's Champions League, irrespective of domestic league standings. For United, currently languishing in 14th place, and Tottenham, sitting in 16th, this opportunity is crucial since neither team is likely to secure a European spot through their league performance alone. Success in the Europa League could thus prove transformative for both clubs.
Opta's analysis suggests only a slim 12% chance that the final won't feature two English teams. While United's dominant display against a strong Bilbao side boosts confidence, Tottenham must remain cautious. Bodo/Glimt boasts a formidable home record in the Europa League, with a 70% win rate since the 2022-23 season, contrasting sharply with their 9% success rate on foreign soil.
This season presents England with an unprecedented opportunity to sweep all three European trophies—an achievement no nation has accomplished before. Arsenal faces Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League, though their chances stand at just 12.1%. In the Conference League, Chelsea looks increasingly likely to prevail after a commanding 4-1 away victory over Djurgarden in their semi-final opener.
Historically, all-English finals have been rare but memorable. The inaugural UEFA Cup in 1971-72 saw Tottenham defeat Wolves across two legs. Subsequent encounters include Manchester United overcoming Chelsea in the 2008 Champions League final via penalties and Liverpool besting Tottenham in the 2019 edition. Chelsea also vanquished Arsenal in the same year's Europa League final, while their most recent triumph came against Manchester City in the 2021 Champions League.
An all-English Europa League final would not only be historic but also ensure six English teams compete in next season's Champions League. Regardless of the outcome, it underscores the strength and resilience of English football on the continental stage, setting the stage for what promises to be an exhilarating conclusion to this season's competitions.