Navigating the Fantasy Football Playoffs with Key Matchups
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. Tampa Bay presents an interesting matchup. After a five-week stretch of top-12 finishes, Herbert has hit a cold streak. Over his last two games, he's averaging just 10.9 fantasy points per game and outside the top 20 RBs. One major difference is his lack of involvement in the running game. From Weeks 8-12, he averaged 35 yards per game on the ground with two TDs, but since then, just 13 yards. To return to fantasy relevance, he needs to increase his passing volume, which he did during his great run when averaging nearly 30 passing attempts per game. Luckily for fantasy managers relying on him this week, the Chargers have a great matchup against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-most passing yards and the most completions. Over their last three games, they've been better against QBs, only allowing one top-12 finish. But prior to that, in six games, they allowed a top-eight QB finish and each week the QB threw for at least two TDs. Fantasy managers might place a bet on Herbert to start their playoff run.
Kurt would play Herbert over Kyler Murray (ARI) vs. New England and Brock Purdy (SF) vs. L.A. Rams. Despite an inconsistent supporting cast, Brock Purdy has been the most consistent in the San Francisco offense. He had a bounce-back game last week, finishing inside the top-eight QBs for the seventh time this season. His ability to run the ball, averaging 3.9 fantasy points, has also been a bonus. With the 49ers needing to make the playoffs, they'll rely more on the passing game, which could mean a higher ceiling for Purdy. While starting a QB on Thursday night in the playoffs can be nerve-wracking, Purdy's matchup against the Rams should calm some nerves. The Rams' defense allowed 42 points in their last game but have only allowed two top-12 QB finishes in their last eight games. It may be risky, but sometimes you need to call your shot in the fantasy playoffs.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco (KC) at Cleveland is a great matchup for fantasy managers. Pacheco missed nine games after fracturing his fibula but saw 46% of snaps in his second game back. More importantly, he out-snapped Kareem Hunt, indicating he's back in the lead role. The Browns' defense has allowed the fourth-most rushing TDs and the second-most carries for 20+ yards. In their last six games, they've allowed a top-24 RB finish in five games and in 69% of their games. It may be risky relying on an injured RB, but Pacheco should be a solid RB2 this week.
Kurt would play Pacheco over Jonathan Taylor (IND) at Denver and Braelon Allen (NYJ) at Jacksonville. It's tough to hold onto insurance policy RBs, but Braelon Allen is getting some payoff as we enter the playoffs. With Breece Hall out, Allen saw a 54% snap percentage against the Dolphins. However, he evenly split opportunities with Isaiah Davis, both getting 16 opportunities. The Jaguars' defense is one of five teams that have allowed 15 rushing TDs and 10 carries for 20+ yards. In their last six games, they've allowed a top-24 RB in each game and only not allowed it in three games. Fantasy managers should check if Breece is out before playing Allen with confidence.
Sincere McCormick (LV) vs. Atlanta is a bit of a tough matchup. After spending most of the season on the practice squad, McCormick showed his potential on Black Friday. In two games, he rushed for more yards than any other Raiders RB this season. But he still hasn't scored a TD and isn't overly involved in the passing game. The Falcons' defense has allowed the third-fewest rushing TDs and 17.6 fantasy points per game to RBs. However, in 77% of their games this season, they've allowed a top-24 RB. McCormick may not be the ceiling play, but he should provide a safe floor.
Wide Receivers
Khalil Shakir (BUF) at Detroit is a good matchup for fantasy managers. Despite the additions around him, Shakir remains the most reliable pass-catching option in Buffalo. Since Amari Cooper's addition in Week 7, Shakir has averaged three more targets per game and finished as a top-30 WR in all but two games, including two top-10 finishes. The only thing missing is TD production with just three on the season. But with a 23% target share in one of the best offenses, he should be considered nearly every week. Against the Lions, a team that allows the 10th-most passing yards but only 11 passing TDs, Shakir is a playable fantasy asset.
Kurt would play Shakir over Deebo Samuel (SF) vs. L.A. Rams and Adam Thielen (CAR) vs. Dallas. Adam Thielen has returned from injury with back-to-back top-20 WR finishes, providing a safe target for Bryce Young. Over the last two weeks, he's seen 21 targets and turned them into 201 receiving yards and a TD. The passing volume in Carolina has increased since his return, averaging 38 passing attempts per game. Against the Cowboys, who allow 8 yards per passing attempt and the most 40+ yard completions, Thielen should be in lineups as a WR2 with upside.
There has been a shift in the Seattle passing game, mainly to the detriment of DK Metcalf. He started the season strong but since returning from a knee injury, his highest fantasy finish has been WR32 with two outside the top 40. He still sees plenty of targets but has been less valuable in the red zone. With Jaxon Smith-Njigba emerging, it's worth considering other options. Against the Packers, who allow -3.4 fantasy points above expectation and only one pass play over 40 yards, Metcalf may not be the best start. Fantasy managers might want to consider other options.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (WASH) at New Orleans is a consistent TE option. He's provided a safety blanket for rookie QB Jayden Daniels, averaging four receptions and nearly 40 yards per game. His recent surge of TDs has also been a bonus, with three in his last three games. But against the Saints, who rank high against TEs, allowing only 8.8 fantasy points per game, it will be a tougher matchup. Over their last seven games, they've allowed below that average six times. The key for Ertz this week is getting into the end zone, as he's seen seven red zone targets in his last four games.
Kurt would play Ertz over Evan Engram (JAX) vs. N.Y. Jets and TJ Hockenson (MIN) vs. Chicago. TJ Hockenson has had a long road back to fantasy relevance but has stepped up in the Vikings' pass-heavy offense, finishing as a top-six TE twice. However, he's been inconsistent, finishing outside the top 15 TEs in four of the other four weeks. With six targets per game since returning, he provides ample opportunity. Against the Bears, who have been solid against the pass but allowed double-digit fantasy points to TEs in six of their last eight games, Hockenson is a risky but upside play.