"Kentucky Derby Winner's Journey: From Glory to the Malibu Challenge"

Before the Malibu

Let's take a moment to consider a significant number: 2,406 days. This is the duration since a Kentucky Derby winner, who ran on the first Saturday in May, managed to win another race after their Derby triumph. The last horse to achieve this feat was Justify in 2018, winning the Preakness two weeks after his Derby victory. Since then, a string of Derby winners have struggled to repeat their success. Country House, the 2019 Derby winner, was disqualified and never won another race. Mandaloun, the 2021 winner, didn't win a race after being retroactively named Derby champ in late February 2022. Mage and Rich Strike also failed to achieve further victories after their Derby wins, going a combined 0-for-9.

Even before Justify, the 2017 and 2016 Kentucky Derby winners, Nyquist and Always Dreaming, couldn't manage another win. This once-magnificent mystique of Kentucky Derby winners clearly needs a makeover. A victory by Mystik Dan in next week's Malibu could be the much-needed boost that Kentucky Derby enthusiasts are eagerly hoping for.

My Latest 3-Year-Old Male Rankings

In my latest rankings of 3-year-old males, Mystik Dan has slipped to sixth due to his inactivity. Sierra Leone, on the other hand, has brought his A-game in the Breeders' Cup Classic, decisively beating Fierceness and Forever Young. Critics who claim it was just luck are mistaken. Metrics confirm that he ran the best race, covering extra ground while the early leaders filled the board. He deserves the Eclipse and may have his sights set on the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and Saudi Cup (G1) next.

Fierceness ran a strong second in the Breeders' Cup Classic, building on his earlier Grade 1 wins and sparking an Eclipse debate with Sierra Leone. The decision is far from settled, and he is likely to take a break until spring.

Older Dirt Males

National Treasure is my reluctant Eclipse vote. His two major Grade 1 wins and a near-miss in another race stand out among the rest. Subsanador had high hopes, but like many South American imports, he struggled to adapt. The California Crown (G1) winner was just starting to make his mark as a divisional contender when injury sidelined him until next season.

Newgate has been solid in five U.S. starts this season, winning the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) and coming close in the California Crown. His strong fourth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic proved his worth.

Older Dirt Females

Idiomatic's retirement before the Breeders' Cup Distaff was a disappointment. She repeated in the Spinster (G1) and showed more heart in defeat than in some of her wins this season. She earns my Eclipse vote, although Adare Manor was close behind.

Adare Manor, although retired, remains in the rankings. Her Clement L. Hirsch (G1) win demonstrated her determination and ability to overcome tough competition. With two Grade 1 wins and a 3-for-4 record, she is a clear second on my Eclipse ballot.

3-Year-Old Fillies

Thorpedo Anna cruised to victory over a weak field in the Breeders' Cup Distaff as Idiomatic and Awesome Result were absent. While her 2024 season was impressive, she faced a historically weak 3-year-old filly division. She'll likely win Horse of the Year, but the hype may be a bit over the top. She's likely the best since Monomoy Girl back in 2018.

Power Squeeze finished seventh in the Cotillion (G1), nearly 10 lengths behind Thorpedo Anna, but earlier won the Alabama (G1) by a head over Candied. She has three graded-stakes wins this season.

Turf Males

Johannes finished second in the Breeders' Cup Mile, behind only More Than Looks. With four graded-stakes wins this season, including the Shoemaker Mile (G1), he is my current Eclipse choice. He may race next week in the San Gabriel (G2).

Carl Spackler never really got on track in the Mile, finishing sixth but not running poorly. He maintains his spot based on his season's resume, having notched his second straight Grade 1 win in the Turf Mile at Keeneland.

Turf Females

Moira's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf win was a long-awaited Grade 1, but this division lacks a dominant female. Although she's a worthy contender, with just one Grade 1 win, it's hard to consider her Eclipse-worthy. In the 45-year history of this award, only four have won with only one Grade 1 win.

Didia bounced back from two subpar races to finish a close third in the Breeders' Cup Mile, just half a length behind the winner. The Just a Game (G1) winner returns to the top five and will race in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January.

Male Sprinters

The Chosen Vron dominated the Pat O'Brien (G2), finishing second in his first loss in six starts this season. His record remains impressive, with 19 wins from 25 starts and 18 in stakes. He missed the Breeders' Cup but went 5-for-6 this year, including the Bing Crosby (G1). He gets my Eclipse vote in this division.

Straight No Chaser won the Breeders' Cup Sprint in just his third start of 2024, but can't be ranked at the top. His only other win was the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2), with an off-the-board finish in the Runhappy (G3).

Female Sprinters

Soul of an Angel closed fast to win the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. With 10 strong races this year, including wins in the Princess Rooney (G3) and Ruffian (G2), she earns my Eclipse vote in a division lacking a standout. She'll race again in the Rampart Stakes next Thursday.

Society ran a close second in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint as the favorite, losing by a half-length. She scored her first win of 2024 in a big one before, defeating Vahva and Scylla in the Ballerina (G1). In her only other start this season, she was third to Vahva in the Chicago (G3).

2-Year-Old Males

Citizen Bull dominated the Breeders' Cup Juvenile for a gate-to-wire win, following his American Pharoah (G1) victory. With a 3-for-4 record, he is the clear Eclipse winner in this division.

Journalism, a son of Curlin, looked very good defeating a solid field in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). He is now 2-for-3 in his career.

2-Year-Old Fillies

Immersive impressed at the Breeders' Cup, aside from Thorpedo Anna's Distaff. Like Thorpedo, she's a lock for the Eclipse. With a 4-for-4 record and three Grade 1s under her belt, she's off to a great start to her career.

Good Cheer won the Golden Rod (G2) impressively, running her record to 4-for-4.