HorseRacing
"Kentucky Jockey Club: Potential for an Upset Among Contenders"
2024-11-29
Churchill Downs is set to showcase a dozen races for 2-year-olds on Saturday. Among them, the Grade 2, $400,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes offers qualifying points towards the 2025 Kentucky Derby. In the last 12 years, eight Kentucky Jockey Club heroes have made it to the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Let's take a closer look at the contenders in this year's race.

Uncover the Potential of Churchill Downs' 2-Year-Old Races

He’s Not Joking (8-1)

In Canada's Grey Stakes (G3), He’s Not Joking showed his prowess by easily handling his rivals. Completing 1 1/6 miles in 1:43.18 over Woodbine's Tapeta track, he earned a career-best 96 Brisnet rating. His dam and sire are dirt horses, and he handled the Tapeta kickback well. Although he must prove himself on dirt, he has tactical speed and is a serious contender. Trained by Josie Carroll, he has a 4: 2-1-1 record on Woodbine's all-weather surface and won the Grey Stakes last out. Florent Geroux will ride him.

Jonathan’s Way (5-2)

In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Jonathan’s Way was unsettled early but has shown improvement with every start. His speed figures have been on the rise, and he earned a 99 Brisnet rating. Trainer Philip Bauer gave him a five-furlong 58.80 bullet move for the Kentucky Jockey Club. He's out of the stakes-winning sprinter Female Drama and has a half-brother who is a multiple restricted stakes-placed sprinter. Regular rider Joel Rosario retains the mount.

Tiztastic (5-1)

Tiztastic is undefeated on turf and placed on dirt. In the Street Sense (G3), he showed his tenacity by eating dirt and passing tired horses. By Tiz the Law, he has a strong pedigree with stakes-winning relatives. However, his speed ratings reveal a one-paced grinder. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he has had mixed results on different surfaces. Cristian Torres will ride him.

Dapper Moon (8-1)

In his second start, Dapper Moon outclassed maidens at Saratoga. His distaff line has plenty of blacktype, but his speed ratings are low. He's trained by Dallas Stewart and has had a mixed bag of results in graded stakes. Regular rider Ricardo Santana Jr. will be on him.

Filoso (8-1)

Filoso closed strongly in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) but was still behind the top two. By City of Light, he has a decent pedigree with stakes-winning relatives. His speed ratings are mediocre, and he needs to improve. Trained by Chad Summers, he has shown some promise but has room for growth. John Velazquez will ride him.

Clock Tower (10-1)

Capable on both dirt and turf, Clock Tower fought hard in the Bourbon (G3) but was passed in the final strides. By Not This Time, he has a good pedigree with Grade 3-winning relatives. Wesley Ward keeps him in good shape with steady five-furlong breezes. He may vie with other pacesetters.

Sonic Skidaddle (6-1)

Sonic Skidaddle had gate issues in his last race but still managed to win by a wide margin. By City of Light, he has a strong pedigree with stakes-placed relatives. His 99 late-pace figure is one of the highest in the field. Trained by Brendan Walsh, he has shown potential and Tyler Gaffalione will ride him.

First Resort (9-2)

After a second-place finish in the Saratoga Special (G1), First Resort was scratched from the Iroquois. He's a Godolphin homebred by Uncle Mo and has a good pedigree with Grade 1-winning relatives. He has competed at three different tracks with different jockeys and could earn an exotics check if the pace is right.

Render Judgment (12-1)

Render Judgment was green in his second start but showed determination. By Blame, he has a decent pedigree with graded-winning relatives. He earned an average 87 speed rating and a 96 late-pace figure. Trained by Kenny McPeek, he has shown improvement and Brian Hernandez Jr. will ride him.

Redacted (30-1)

Redacted finished second in a maiden race at Churchill Downs but was beaten by a length. By Honor Code, he has a pedigree with some blacktype sprinter/milers. He needs to improve significantly to compete in this field. Trained by Dallas Stewart, he has shown some promise but is still a maiden. Edgar Morales will ride him.Final thoughts:Laurie: Surprisingly, off-the-pace types have dominated the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes over the last 15 years. Most in this year's field are one-run closers and need improvement. Jonathan’s Way is back with a less accomplished group and has high speed ratings. He’s Not Joking hopes to add to his tally. First Resort gets back to dirt. Render Judgement and Sonic Skidaddle have potential.Ashley: Laurie's breakdown of the pace scenario is excellent. First Resort is a need-the-lead type. I'm going with He’s Not Joking on top as his sire has produced good Kentucky Derby contenders. Jonathan’s Way is a must-use off the drop in class. I don't think First Resort will win unless he gets the lead. Render Judgment also has potential.Selections:Laurie: 7. Sonic Skidaddle (6-1), 1. He’s Not Joking (8-1), 2. Jonathan’s Way (5-2)Ashley: 1. He’s Not Joking (8-1), 2. Jonathan’s Way (5-2), 8. First Resort (9-2), 9. Render Judgement (12-1)
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