Unraveling the Offseason Matrix: December 6, 2024

Biggest Rumors of the Week

Juan Soto appears to be on the verge of a decision, with at most five teams still in the running: the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. Mystery teams may still emerge, but with the bidding reportedly reaching $600 million, it seems unlikely. Soto has begun to narrow down his choices, but we're not sure which teams have been eliminated and how many remain. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, we should know Soto's destination by the start of the Winter Meetings on Monday at the latest.

The Yankees seem to be preparing for life after Soto, though they hope it won't come to that. They have reportedly met with free agent starting pitchers Corbin Burnes and Max Fried and could make a strong push to sign infielder Willy Adames if Soto leaves. On the trade front, they have shown interest in Cubs outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger to replace Soto in the middle of the lineup. Bellinger could also fill their opening at first base and could be an option even if Soto returns. Earlier in the offseason, the Yankees also checked in on Pete Alonso and expressed interest in Christian Walker.

Trader Jerry is at it again, with Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reporting that the Mariners have had preliminary discussions with the Phillies about Alec Bohm and the Cubs about Nico Hoerner. Teams engage in numerous conversations with free agents and trade targets, so we shouldn't draw any hasty conclusions. However, these reports signal that Jerry Dipoto is looking to upgrade at third base and second base.

Korean second baseman Hye-seong Kim has been officially posted for MLB clubs and has until 5 p.m. EST on January 3 to reach a deal. He was already linked to the Mariners before the posting, and other teams are now likely to show interest. Eric Longenhagen has graded him as a 40 FV player with relatively low upside but a cost-effective option.

A’s Sign Luis Severino for Three Years, $67 Million

Ben Clemens' write-up of the deal includes updated roster and payroll projections. This signing shows that the A’s are committed to fielding a more competitive team in 2025. The $67 million deal for Severino also indicates that it may take a premium to attract players to a minor-league ballpark. This is likely to be the largest deal the A’s make this offseason, and it gives hope for a decent team.

The impact on other teams is unclear. We don't know how many other suitors Severino had or if the A’s were on their radar. However, teams may now turn their attention to similar pitchers with qualifying offers, such as Nick Pivetta and Sean Manaea, or an unencumbered pitcher like Nathan Eovaldi.

For similar players, the $23 million annual salary for Severino may increase demand for Pivetta, Manaea, and Eovaldi. Kiley McDaniel's contract prediction for Severino was lower than the actual deal, suggesting that these players may sign for more than expected.

Mets Sign Frankie Montas for Two Years, $34 Million

Ben Clemens' write-up of the deal includes updated roster and payroll projections. This signing doesn't close off the Mets' pursuit of starting pitching as they still have at least two rotation spots to fill. It should also solidify José Buttó as a reliever.

For other teams, this move might prompt them to inquire about Paul Blackburn. With Montas added, Blackburn has fallen further down the depth chart. His injury during the season also limited the Mets' ability to evaluate him.

For similar players, Montas' deal of $17 million average annual value is good news for players like Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, and Michael Lorenzen. Montas is likely to outperform them in average annual value, but it wouldn't be surprising to see most of them beat their median contract predictions.

Cubs Sign Matthew Boyd for Two Years, $14.5 Million

Michael Baumann's write-up of the deal includes updated roster and payroll projections. The addition of Boyd is likely to end the Cubs' pursuit of starting pitching for now. Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Boyd are likely to secure starting jobs. The Cubs would only consider bumping Javier Assad if they land a true impact starter.

For other teams, Assad could become a trade target for those in need of starting pitching depth. However, the Cubs may be reluctant to part with him. Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski are now competing for rotation spots, and the Cubs generally keep their pitcher options open.

For similar players, mid-rotation arms are getting paid this winter, highlighting the importance of these positions in the offseason market.

Red Sox Sign Aroldis Chapman for One Year, $10.75 Million

Michael Baumann's write-up of the deal includes updated roster and payroll projections. The Red Sox needed to address their bullpen in the offseason, and the addition of Chapman and Justin Wilson provides some relief. Brennan Bernardino and Cam Booser are also on the 40-man roster.

For other teams, with Chapman off the market, there is a gap between big fish Tanner Scott and the rest of the lefty relievers. Other notable lefty relievers include Scott Alexander, Ryan Yarbrough, Danny Coulombe, Drew Smyly, Andrew Chafin, Jalen Beeks, and Hoby Milner.

For similar players, Chapman's $10.75 million contract sets a benchmark for veteran high-leverage arms outside of the top four. Blake Treinen, Kenley Jansen, Kirby Yates, and David Robertson should aim for at least $10 million.

Rangers Sign Kyle Higashioka for Two Years, $12.5 Million

Davy Andrews' write-up of the deal includes updated roster and payroll projections. The Rangers' catcher timeshare with Heim means they are out of the catcher market for the rest of the offseason. Sam Huff becomes a trade chip as he has performed well in limited MLB opportunities but lacks a strong reputation.

For other teams, Huff's entry into the trade block offsets the inability to sign Higashioka. The catcher market has moved quickly in free agency, and options are now limited.

For similar players, Carson Kelly is the only catcher left likely to sign a multi-year deal. Higashioka's contract is close to his median prediction, which provides a data point for Kelly.

Rays Sign Danny Jansen for One Year, $8.5 Million

The Rays have settled their catcher timeshare with Ben Rortvedt and Danny Jansen. For $8.5 million, Jansen will get significant playing time against righties, but Rortvedt will likely play more than a typical backup. The Rays lost René Pinto to the Orioles, so Logan Driscoll is the top depth option.

For other teams, the catcher market is shrinking. If the options mentioned in the Higashioka section don't appeal, teams can look at the Pirates' Jason Delay or Henry Davis, or the Phillies' Rafael Marchán or Garrett Stubbs.

For similar players, Jansen's contract is worse than expected, which may impact Kelly's market. Kelly has a stronger defensive reputation and a better season compared to Jansen, who has an injury history.