The ZiPS projection system, now in its 21st consecutive season, has released its forecast for the Chicago White Sox. The team is expected to see a marked improvement from their dismal 2024 performance, where they lost an astounding 121 games. Despite this projected uptick, doubts remain about the organization's ability to build a competitive roster. The projections suggest a significant turnaround, but questions linger regarding the quality of both hitting and pitching talent. While some players like Luis Robert Jr. show promise, others indicate a need for substantial changes if the White Sox aim to become contenders.
Despite the White Sox losing 121 games in 2024, the ZiPS system predicts a notable improvement with a potential 20-win increase in 2025. This optimistic outlook stems from the improbability of such a poor record repeating itself. However, the lineup remains questionable. Players like Josh Rojas, Mike Tauchman, and Austin Slater are competent contributors rather than starters capable of leading a rebuilding effort. Andrew Benintendi's presence does little to inspire confidence in a revamped offensive strategy. Meanwhile, Luis Robert Jr. stands out as the brightest hope, bolstered by his impressive 2023 performance.
The catching and shortstop positions offer glimmers of hope. Kyle Teel, acquired through trades, projects well for both short-term and long-term contributions. His defensive skills and offensive potential make him a valuable asset. Conversely, the pitching staff presents a more dire situation. No pitcher on the current roster is projected to achieve even a league-average ERA, an unprecedented outcome in ZiPS history. Penn Murfee, despite health concerns since 2022, holds the lowest projected ERA among the starting pitchers. The rotation might be above replacement level but lacks standout performers beyond Drew Thorpe.
The bullpen's prognosis is particularly bleak, with ZiPS projecting it to be the worst unit ever analyzed by the system. Prelander Berroa emerges as a name to watch due to his promising fastball and slider, although he struggles with pitch control. Overall, while a 20-win improvement is anticipated, the White Sox's foundational issues persist. Without substantial restructuring, another disappointing season looms large on the horizon. The team's management faces a critical juncture; either embrace a full rebuild or risk continued underperformance.
While the ZiPS projections paint a picture of modest improvement, the underlying issues within the White Sox organization remain unresolved. The projected 20-win increase is a step in the right direction, yet it underscores the depth of challenges ahead. Key players like Luis Robert Jr. provide glimpses of future potential, but the broader roster lacks the necessary depth and talent to compete effectively. For the White Sox to truly turn things around, significant changes in player development and strategic planning are imperative. The upcoming season will serve as a pivotal test for the franchise's leadership and vision.