Uncover the Secrets of Deep League Starting Pitchers

Hayden Birdsong: The Young Prodigy with Walk Woes

At just 23 years old, Hayden Birdsong has already made his mark in the baseball world. Last season, he debuted with a 4.75 ERA (4.21 xFIP), 1.39 WHIP, and an impressive 11.0 K/9 over 16 starts. However, his struggles were directly tied to his high walk rate of 5.4 BB/9 (41% Ball%). This issue has been a consistent challenge for him throughout his career.

Looking at his previous seasons, we see that his walk rate has been a concern. In 2023 at the AA level, it was 5.1, in 2024 at the AA level it was 3.7, but in 2024 at the AAA level, it spiked to 6.0. Despite some improvement in certain periods, he showed no clear signs of consistent walk control last season, with a 4.7 BB/9 in the first half and 5.6 BB/9 in the second. Despite these challenges, he has the potential to be a dominant pitcher if he can master his control.

Zack Littell: The Steady Righty with Velocity Concerns

The 28-year-old Zack Littell had a solid season, posting a 3.63 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 8.1 K/9 in 156 IP. His main weapon is a 92-mph fastball, which may not be flashy but gets the job done. What sets him apart is his exceptional control, with a meager 1.8 BB/9.

However, Littell faces another issue - his fastball lost nearly 4 mph last season. After checking for a Spring Training velocity rebound, there is some potential for improvement. While he is a great option to start the season, it's important to be aware that his velocity may tail off as the weather warms up. His most thrown pitch is a slider/cutter with a 10% SwStr%, followed by his splitter at 18% SwStr%. All of his pitches generate flyballs (34% GB%), but these flyballs turn into home runs during the warmer months. His monthly HR/9 numbers show this trend, with variations from 0.7 in September to 2.3 in June.

Matthew Boyd: The Experienced Lefty with Health Questions

At 33 years old, Matthew Boyd had a solid season in 39 IP, with a 2.72 ERA (3.89 xFIP), 1.13 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9. His arsenal is well-rounded, with each pitch grading out great except for a useless sinker.

His pitch breakdown shows some interesting statistics. With a 11% SwStr% and 19% GB% on his four-seamer, 18% SwStr% and 34% GB% on his change, 18% SwStr% and 39% GB% on his slider, and 17% SwStr% and 50% GB% on his curve, he gets a ton of swings-and-misses. The extreme flyball nature of his pitches has kept the hard contact under control, with a 6.7% Barrel% and 37% HardHit% ranking in the 37th and 70th among the 221 starters with at least 30 IP. The biggest question with Boyd is his health. The last time he threw over 80 IP was in 2019 (185 IP), so in a redraft environment, he is a must-roster for the upside, but in a draft-and-hold or best ball league, his injury history makes him a bit trickier.

David Peterson: The Left-handed Starter with Walk and Strikeout Dynamics

David Peterson, 29 years old, experienced some left-on-base luck until September 1st, posting a 2.83 ERA (4.39 xFIP), 1.32 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and 1.8 HR/9. In September, he found his rhythm, dropping his walk rate to 2.2 BB/9 and posting a 20% K%-BB% (3.16 xFIP).

While the drop in walk rate seems promising, it's important to note that he has had similar experiences in the past where his walk rate has dropped and then bounced back up. His strikeouts are always a strength, with his four-seamer (12% SwStr%) and slider (17% SwStr%) doing most of the work. In a roto league, his career 1.37 WHIP can do significant damage in terms of categories. In a points league, his strikeouts help offset the walks, making him more tolerable. However, his starts will be matchup-based, and at his current price, it may be difficult to justify drafting him.