Baseball
What to Expect at 2024 Winter Meetings: Soto, Pitching Deals & More
2024-12-07
For those with a long history in baseball, the mention of the Winter Meetings at Dallas’ grand Hilton Anatole Hotel brings back memories of wild weather. In 2000 and 2005, during the final days of the Meetings, ice storms of immense proportions hit the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. The lobby hobnobbing that typically characterizes the Meetings shifted to the airports, where long flight delays left the entire industry temporarily stranded.

Get Ready for the 2024 Winter Meetings - Where Anything Can Happen

Reason 1: The Major Players and Their Destinations

Now, everyone knows the major players. Soto could return to the Yankees and continue to play the role of Lou Gehrig to Aaron Judge’s Babe Ruth. He might defect to the Mets or perhaps the rival Red Sox. He could become the blockbuster acquisition the Blue Jays have been seeking. While we don't think he'll go to the West Coast with the Dodgers, they've had their share of success in signing players. Or maybe there's a Mystery Team in the mix to land Soto... or at least drive up his already massive price tag. A $600 million floor has reportedly been established in the Soto talks. He might fall short of Shohei Ohtani's record-setting $700 million precedent but will surely surpass Ohtani's heavily deferred deal in terms of present-day value. Soto doesn't pitch and has some long-term defensive questions, but this is the kind of opportunity that arises when big stars are motivated and you have a 26-year-old, patient slugger on a Hall of Fame trajectory.

Reason 2: Massive Pitching Pacts on the Horizon

The Soto deal has caused quite a stir, but the financials attached to starting pitchers in a pitching-starved market are truly astonishing. Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, and Nathan Eovaldi are among the top pitching talents still available. Any team that doesn't land Soto could pivot to premier pitching, and the Orioles and Tigers are among the clubs ready to spend significantly in this area. This is a market that offers great opportunities for teams looking to strengthen their pitching staff.

Reason 3: The High-End Position Player Market Finally Cracks

Willy Adames, Alex Bregman, Teoscar Hernández, Anthony Santander, Pete Alonso, and Christian Walker have been on hold during the Soto sweepstakes. Once Soto signs, this will change. If the Yankees lose Soto, their Plan B could involve any of these players. They have first base, second base, and right field (or center field if Judge shifts) open. Jazz Chisholm Jr. provides positional flexibility, as he can play at third, second, or in the outfield. If the Mets miss out on Soto, it increases the likelihood of bringing back Alonso. But they still need another strong hitter. If the Blue Jays strike out on Soto like they did on Ohtani, it remains to be seen how serious they are about spending on other free agents to enhance their roster. The Red Sox, if they don't land Soto, have a clear need for a right-handed bat. This doesn't even begin to cover the many teams interested in the rest of the top-end position player pool. The Astros have already made an offer to Bregman, and the Giants, Mariners, Braves, Tigers, Cubs, and Nationals are also in the running for an impact bat.

Reason 4: The Trade Market Will Percolate

It's impossible to predict if a significant trade will happen at these Meetings, but given the high cost of free-agent pitching and the scarcity of productive free-agent position players at key positions like third base (beyond Bregman), catcher, and left and center field, such deals will definitely be discussed. You'll hear a lot about 10-time Gold Glove winner Nolan Arenado as the retooling Cardinals consider their trade options. The White Sox are not only discussing staff ace Garrett Crochet (a virtual lock to be moved with two years of contractual control remaining) but also center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Interest in the Cubs' Cody Bellinger will also increase once the Soto deal is finalized. There's a lot going on behind the scenes that we don't know yet.

Reason 5: The Bullpen Bonanza

Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman (who, like Clay Holmes in his new deal with the Mets, could be used as a starter), Carlos Estévez, Kirby Yates, David Robertson, and Blake Treinen lead the bullpen market. After a season filled with injuries, bullpens have become more important than ever. These relievers will play a crucial role in the upcoming season.

Reason 6: The Unexpected Reveals

Last year, our Dodgers beat writer Juan Toribio missed the Winter Meetings. He was getting married or something similar. I filled in for him. Dave Roberts was a writer's dream. On the first day, he let reporters know that Mookie Betts would be a full-time second baseman in 2024. It didn't work out that way, but it was important news at the time and great conversation fodder. The next day, when everyone was afraid to talk about the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, Roberts blurted out that the Dodgers had recently met with the two-way superstar at Dodger Stadium. Watching the reaction spread was quite entertaining. You never know what someone might reveal at these Meetings, as they often provide the first extensive sit-downs with skippers and front-office folks since the exit interviews at the end of the season.

Reason 7: The Potential for New Hall of Famers

The Classic Baseball Era ballot results will be revealed live from the Meetings on MLB Network at 7:30 p.m. ET Sunday. The small-committee process for hearing the Hall of Fame cases of "veterans" passed over by the BBWAA and managers and executives is both fascinating and frustrating. There are 16 people selected to vote, and eight people on the ballot. The votes are cast after long debates behind closed doors and off the record. To get elected, a candidate must receive support from at least 12 of the 16 voters, but they can't vote for more than three people. Guessing the outcome is a challenge, as this process is completely unpredictable. With the Classic Era focused on those whose primes came before 1980, this year's candidates are Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, John Donaldson, Steve Garvey, Vic Harris, Tommy John, Dave Parker, and Luis Tiant. In past small-committee votes, some of these candidates have come close, and it's time for some of them to get the recognition they deserve.

Reason 8: No Ice Storms This Time

Unlike in the past, there are no ice storms in the forecast for this year's Winter Meetings. It's a time of excitement and anticipation as teams and players gather to make important decisions and set the stage for the upcoming season.
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